| Alerted | Bet | Category | Model | Betcha | FanDuel | Market | FD since | Fair | EV | Now | Kelly | Kickoff | Result |
|---|
Click a result to correct it by hand. ⚑ = automatic result worth a look (e.g. player not in ESPN's box score). Awards are excluded everywhere.
Actual vs expected profit
Cumulative, settled bets in kickoff order. Expected = stake × EV at the odds you took.
By category
Wins vs what the model expected (sum of fair probabilities).
| Category | Bets | W-L-P | Wins / exp. | Staked | P/L | Exp. P/L |
|---|
Bets
| Placed | Bet | Category | Stake | Odds | Fair | EV | Kickoff | Result | P/L | Exp. |
|---|
What if every +EV alert had been bet?
Pick which bet types to include and the minimum EV for each; everything below recomputes. Below the runner's thresholds only near-misses logged since 6 Oct are available.
| Bet type | Min EV | Bets | Settled |
|---|
Cumulative profit by staking strategy
How each strategy sizes a bet
Strategy results
| Strategy | Bets | Staked | Profit | ROI | Exp. profit | Exp. ROI | Max drawdown | Biggest stake | Pending |
|---|
Actual vs expected ROI by category
Flat 1-unit stakes. Few bets per category means wide noise — the z column says how surprising the win count is.
| Category | Bets | W-L-P | Wins / exp. | z | ROI | Exp. ROI | P/L (u) | FD ▲ / ▼ |
|---|
Actual vs expected ROI by EV band
Flat 1-unit stakes. If the model is right, actual should track expected as EV rises.
| EV band | Bets | Wins / exp. | ROI | Exp. ROI | P/L (u) |
|---|
Threshold sweep
Flat 1-unit profit if only bets at or above each minimum EV were taken (one category at a time; other filters as set above).